PUBLICATION TITLE
A NEW SIMULATION TOOL FOR AUTOMATIC DILUTE AND DENSE GAS DISPERSION
TYPE OF PUBLICATION
Chapter in a book
YEAR OF PUBLICATION
2022
AUTHORS
Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Andrew T. Prata, Federica Pardini, Giovanni Macedonio and Antonio Costa
Bibliographic citation
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Short summary
Modelling atmospheric dispersal of volcanic ash and aerosols is becoming increasingly valuable for assessing the potential impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on buildings, air quality, and aviation. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from quantitative forecasting of volcanic ash. However, an accurate prediction of volcanic aerosol concentrations using numerical modelling relies on proper estimations of multiple model parameters which are prone to errors. Uncertainties in key parameters such as eruption column height and physical properties of particles or meteorological fields represent a major source of error affecting the forecast quality. The availability of near-real-time geostationary satellite observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions provides the opportunity to improve forecasts in an operational context by incorporating observations into numerical models. Specifically, ensemble-based filters aim at converting a prior ensemble of system states into an analysis ensemble by assimilating a set of noisy observations.
Conference / Journal
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Publisher
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
